Alex De Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Washington Round of 32
AUS1
GREWC
De Minaur A.
Alex De Minaur faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Washington round of 32 on hard. Alex De Minaur is the paper favourite — ranked #5, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage — but Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 13 of their 14 previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · De Minaur A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Alex De Minaur 0 games in 14 days, Stefanos Tsitsipas 143.
- Serve & return: Stefanos Tsitsipas leads on Serve Rating (54), Alex De Minaur on Return Rating (67).
- Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the head-to-head 13–1, 1–9 on hard. Last met at Miami Masters 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDe Minaur A.: 19 days rest · Tsitsipas S.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–13| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | R64 | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2024-05-06 | Rome Masters | R16 | clay | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2024-02-26 | Acapulco | QF | hard | Alex De Minaur | 1-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-07-31 | Los Cabos | F | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2023-04-17 | Barcelona | QF | clay | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-03-21 | Miami Masters | R32 | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2022-02-07 | Rotterdam | QF | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-10-04 | Indian Wells Masters | R16 | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-7 7-6 6-2 |
| 2021-04-19 | Barcelona | R16 | clay | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2021-02-02 | Atp Cup | RR | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2019-10-28 | Paris Masters | R16 | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2018-11-05 | NextGen Finals | F | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2-4 4-1 4-3 4-3 |
| 2018-10-01 | Tokyo | R16 | hard | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-3 5-7 6-1 |
| 2017-05-01 | Istanbul | Q1 | clay | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-4 6-2 |