Liudmila Samsonova vs Madison Keys — Washington Round of 32
USA6
Samsonova L.
Liudmila Samsonova faces Madison Keys in the Washington round of 32 on hard. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #23, leading the head-to-head 5–1, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Keys M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Madison Keys has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Liudmila Samsonova's 33).
- Serve & return: Liudmila Samsonova brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 38), Madison Keys the stronger return game (Return Rating 41).
- Head-to-head: Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 5–1, 0–3 on hard. Last met at Adelaide 2025.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Conditions
Head to head
1–5| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-06 | Adelaide | SF | hard | Madison Keys | 5-7 7-5 3-0 |
| 2024-05-20 | Strasbourg | SF | clay | Madison Keys | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid | R32 | clay | Madison Keys | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-08-28 | US Open | R32 | hard | Madison Keys | 5-7 6-2 6-2 |
| 2022-01-10 | Adelaide 2 | QF | hard | Madison Keys | 6-3 3-6 6-3 |
| 2021-06-14 | Berlin | QF | grass | Liudmila Samsonova | 7-6 2-6 7-6 |