Liudmila Samsonova vs Madison KeysBerlin Quarter-final

Berlin · WTA · Quarter-final
#41WTA
1775ELO
1699Grass ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 14 June 2021
grass
#22WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Samsonova L.
7-6 2-6 7-6
Keys M.
Samsonova L.
772772
Keys M.
646601

Liudmila Samsonova defeated Madison Keys 7-6 2-6 7-6 in the Berlin quarter-final on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 5–0. Liudmila Samsonova claimed a first win over Madison Keys in six meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

05
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-06AdelaideSFhardMadison Keys5-7 7-5 3-0 RET
2024-05-20StrasbourgSFclayMadison Keys6-1 6-3
2024-04-22MadridR32clayMadison Keys6-2 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenR32hardMadison Keys5-7 6-2 6-2
2022-01-10Adelaide 2QFhardMadison Keys6-3 3-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Samsonova L.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.9
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
69
94
Break points saved·Even
93
96
Break points won·Even
94
90
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
55
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
4.7Grass Elo 1699
Surface ELO
5.3+144 Grass Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1775
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
Surface form
6.6
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.4
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
83
77

Samsonova L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Keys M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 50%