Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baez — Kitzbuhel Quarter-final
Hanfmann Y.
Yannick Hanfmann faces Sebastian Baez in the Kitzbuhel quarter-final on clay. Yannick Hanfmann holds the paper edge — ranked #52, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Yannick Hanfmann grades 55 on serve, Sebastian Baez 60 on return.
- Freshness: Yannick Hanfmann comes in with 2 days of rest and 72 games in 14d, vs Sebastian Baez's 1 and 88.
- Last match: Yannick Hanfmann edged Marco Trungelliti in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadHanfmann Y.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d) · Baez S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-21 | Kitzbuhel | R16 | clay | Yannick Hanfmann | 5-7 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-02-14 | Rio de Janeiro | Q2 | clay | Sebastian Baez | 2-6 7-6 7-6 |