Marco Trungelliti vs Yannick Hanfmann — Kitzbuhel Round of 16
Trungelliti M.
Marco Trungelliti faces Yannick Hanfmann in the Kitzbuhel round of 16 on clay. Yannick Hanfmann is the paper favourite — ranked #52, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage — but Marco Trungelliti has won their only previous meeting.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Hanfmann Y. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Marco Trungelliti 39 games in 14 days, Yannick Hanfmann 72.
- Last match: Marco Trungelliti dropped just 3 games past Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
- Last match: Yannick Hanfmann edged Lukas Neumayer in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadTrungelliti M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Hanfmann Y.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-17 | Rio de Janeiro | Q1 | clay | Marco Trungelliti | 6-4 6-3 |