Bernard Tomic vs Mark Lajal — Lincoln Final

Lincoln · CHALLENGER · Final
Bernard Tomic
AUS8
Bernard Tomic
#164ATP
1475ELO
1441Hard ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
EST5
Mark Lajal
#159ATP
1589ELO
1556Hard ELO
$97kYTD
$654kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Tomic B.
4-6 7-6 7-6
Lajal M.
Tomic B.
477772
Lajal M.
664631

Bernard Tomic won the final of the Lincoln hard-court tournament, defeating Mark Lajal 4-6, 7-6, 7-6. The match lasted three sets, with Tomic prevailing in a deciding third-set tiebreaker. Tomic's victory earned him the title.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Tomic B.Lajal M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
70%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.1
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.3
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Tomic B.Lajal M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
53
43
Break points saved·Even
88
89
Break points won·Slight edge
8
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
83
42
Tiebreaks·Even
83
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Tomic B.23%
Lajal M.77%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lajal M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tomic B.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Lajal M.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1441
Surface ELO
6.4+115 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1474
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1588
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
6.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Tomic B.Lajal M.
Freshness·Clear edge
89
75

Tomic B.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Lajal M.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
33°CMainly clear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw