Nicolas Mejia vs Hernan CasanovaBogota Quarter-final

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#122ATP
1477ELO
1488Clay ELO
$142kYTD
$524kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 2nd on
#340ATP
1393ELO
1381Clay ELO
32 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWLWW
Mejia N.
6-3 6-2
Casanova H.
Mejia N.
662
Casanova H.
320

Nicolas Mejia defeated Hernan Casanova 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the Bogota clay tournament. Mejia hit 2 aces and did not commit a double fault, while converting 50% of his break points and winning 69% of his first-serve points. Mejia won 5 service breaks to Casanova's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
60%
77%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.0
0.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
0.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
26
8
Break points saved·Dominant
74
24
Break points won·Clear edge
6
22
Deciding sets·Slight edge
40
32
Tiebreaks·Even
38
34

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Mejia N.72%
Casanova H.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mejia N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.3+107 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Clay Elo 1381
6.0Overall Elo 1477
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1393
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
100

Mejia N.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d) · Casanova H.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°CDrizzle
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw