Darwin Blanch vs Jacob FearnleyNewport Quarter-final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#224ATP
1551ELO
1458Grass ELO
18 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
grass
#107ATP
1600ELO
1546Grass ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWW
Blanch D.
3-6 3-6
Fearnley J.
Blanch D.
330
Fearnley J.
662

Jacob Fearnley defeated Darwin Blanch 6-3, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of the Newport grass tournament. Fearnley did not hit an ace but converted 50% of his break points, securing five service breaks. Blanch hit one ace and converted all of his break points, but was only able to secure two service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Even
5.9
5.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Blanch D.20%
Fearnley J.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fearnley J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Grass Elo 1458
Surface ELO
6.1+88 Grass Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1551
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1600
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
6.14 of last 7 on grass
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
95
90

Blanch D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Fearnley J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw