Alexis Galarneau vs Jacob FearnleyNewport Semi-final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#185ATP
1593ELO
1538Grass ELO
$177kYTD
$837kCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
grass
#107ATP
1600ELO
1546Grass ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLWWWW
Galarneau A.
7-6 3-6 4-6
Fearnley J.
Galarneau A.
7341
Fearnley J.
6662

Jacob Fearnley defeated Alexis Galarneau 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 in the semifinals of the Newport grass-court tournament. Fearnley hit 5 aces and 9 double faults, winning 77 percent of his first serves and converting 45 percent of break points. He won 5 service breaks to Galarneau's 3.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
58%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
5.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.6
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
28
85
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
96
Break points won·Dominant
16
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
22
99
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
61
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Galarneau A.49%
Fearnley J.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.9Grass Elo 1538
Surface ELO
5.1+8 Grass Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1593
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1600
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.37 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
90

Galarneau A.: 16 days rest · Fearnley J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw