Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley — Ilkley Quarter-final

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

USA

Darwin Blanch

#219ATP

1569ELO

1484Grass ELO

18 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

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—

Sets

Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

GBR

Jacob Fearnley

#145ATP

1625ELO

1582Grass ELO

$214kYTD

$1.7MCAREER

24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLLLWWLL

Darwin Blanch faces Jacob Fearnley in the Ilkley quarter-final on grass. Jacob Fearnley holds the paper edge — ranked #145, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Jacob Fearnley dropped the opening set before beating Keegan Smith 4–6 7–5 6–4.
Fatigue load: Jacob Fearnley carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC

Blanch D.23%

Fearnley J.77%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fearnley J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Blanch D.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Fearnley J.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.8Grass Elo 1484

Surface ELO

6.2+97 Grass Elo edge

4.3Overall Elo 1569

ELO gap

5.7Overall Elo 1625

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

5.25 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Country comfort

7.8Home country · 5/8 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Blanch D.Fearnley J.

58%1st serve in+5%63%

73%1st serve points won+6%67%

48%2nd serve points won+3%45%

62%Service points won+3%59%

38%Return points won38%

58%Break points saved+5%53%

5.3Aces / match+0.15.2

3.2Double faults / match+2.45.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.