Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Mathys ErhardMilan Qualifying Final

Milan · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#498ATP
1293ELO
1268Clay ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
clay
COURT 10 · 1st on
#377ATP
1385ELO
1356Clay ELO
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWLW
Sanchez Quilez A.
3-6 5-7
Erhard M.
Sanchez Quilez A.
350
Erhard M.
672

Mathys Erhard defeated Alejo Sanchez Quilez 6-3 7-5 in the Milan qualifying final on clay.

Key context

  • Set 2, game 2: A 15-point game with five deuces went Mathys Erhard's way.
  • Pressure points: Alejo Sanchez Quilez converted 2 of 7 break points; Mathys Erhard converted 5 of 8 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Sanchez Quilez A.
Erhard M.
Break points won
2/7
5/8
Break points saved
3/8
5/7

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Sanchez Quilez A.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Erhard M.

Erhard M.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Sanchez Quilez A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
4.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:20 UTC
Sanchez Quilez A.26%
Erhard M.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Erhard M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Clay Elo 1268
Surface ELO
6.1+88 Clay Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1293
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1385
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
75
59

Sanchez Quilez A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d) · Erhard M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 58%