Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert — Eastbourne Semi-final
GBR
FRA
Draper J.
Jack Draper faces Ugo Humbert in the Eastbourne semi-final on grass. Ugo Humbert holds the paper edge — ranked #30, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jack Draper 45 games in 14 days, Ugo Humbert 169.
- Form trend: Ugo Humbert's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Jack Draper's has cooled.
- Last match: Jack Draper dropped just 5 games past Gabriel Diallo.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDraper J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Humbert U.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 120 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | Tokyo | QF | hard | Ugo Humbert | 7-5 2-1 RET |