Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel — Eastbourne Qualifying Final
GBR
Arnaldi M.
Matteo Arnaldi faces Toby Samuel in the Eastbourne qualifying final on grass. Matteo Arnaldi holds the paper edge — ranked #34, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Arnaldi M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Matteo Arnaldi comes in with 17 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Toby Samuel's 4 and 91.
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Matteo Arnaldi rising, Toby Samuel cooling.
- Last match: Toby Samuel dropped just 6 games past Quentin Halys.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadArnaldi M.: 17 days rest · Samuel T.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on COURT 2 · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Stewart H. v Vukic A.
- 2Arnaldi M. v Samuel T.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.