Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus — Bad Homburg Qualifying Semi-final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
Paula Badosa
ESPWC
Paula Badosa
#142WTA
1770ELO
1635Grass ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLLLLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 20 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 1 · 4th on
Sinja Kraus
AUT
Sinja Kraus
#92WTA
1720ELO
1553Grass ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWWWWWL
Badosa P.
vs
Kraus S.

Paula Badosa faces Sinja Kraus in the Bad Homburg qualifying semi-final on grass. Sinja Kraus holds the paper edge — ranked #92.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Badosa P.72%
Kraus S.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Badosa P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: Paula Badosa has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 93 vs Sinja Kraus's 56).
  • Fatigue load: Paula Badosa carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Badosa P.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Kraus S.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+82 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Grass Elo 1553
5.7Overall Elo 1770
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1720
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.85 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.14 of last 9 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Badosa P.Stable
Kraus S.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
Badosa P.Kraus S.
1st serve in·Even
56%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
39%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Even
53%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.8
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
7.6
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Badosa P.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Kraus S.

Kraus S.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Serve advantage — Kraus S.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Badosa P.Kraus S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
56
Break points saved·Dominant
95
43
Break points won·Even
94
97
Deciding sets·Slight edge
96
90
Tiebreaks·Dominant
94
31

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Badosa P.Kraus S.
Freshness·Clear edge
75
87

Badosa P.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Kraus S.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on COURT 1 · not before Followed by · 3 matches still to finish ahead

  1. 1Begu I. v Korpatsch T.
  2. 2Sierra S. v Seidel E.
  3. 3Zarazua R. v Thamm M.
  4. 4Badosa P. v Kraus S.This match

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
34°CMainly clear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 35%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.