Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel — Bad Homburg Qualifying Semi-final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
Solana Sierra
ARG
Solana Sierra
#58WTA
1774ELO
1618Grass ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLWWLW
—
Sets
Saturday, 20 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 1 · 2nd on
Ella Seidel
GER
Ella Seidel
#94WTA
1630ELO
1537Grass ELO
21 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLWWWW
Sierra S.
vs
Seidel E.

Solana Sierra faces Ella Seidel in the Bad Homburg qualifying semi-final on grass. Solana Sierra holds the paper edge — ranked #58, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC
Sierra S.73%
Seidel E.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sierra S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Solana Sierra has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 51).
  • Serve & return: Ella Seidel brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 20), Solana Sierra the stronger return game (Return Rating 32).
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sierra S.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Seidel E.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+81 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Grass Elo 1537
5.8Overall Elo 1774
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1630
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.76 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sierra S.Surging
Seidel E.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Sierra S.Seidel E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
41%
43%
Service points won·Even
54%
55%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Even
54%
52%
Aces / match·Even
2.2
2.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.5
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sierra S.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Seidel E.

Seidel E.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Sierra S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sierra S.Seidel E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
87
51
Break points saved·Even
81
77
Break points won·Dominant
96
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
39
Tiebreaks·Even
91
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sierra S.Seidel E.
Freshness·Even
89
88

Sierra S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Seidel E.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on COURT 1 · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Begu I. v Korpatsch T.
  2. 2Sierra S. v Seidel E.This match
  3. 3Zarazua R. v Thamm M.
  4. 4Badosa P. v Kraus S.

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
31°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 40%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.