Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche — Parma Quarter-final

Parma · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Marco Cecchinato
ITA
Marco Cecchinato
#167ATP
1558ELO
1528Clay ELO
$149kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWLWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 18 June 2026 ·
clay
Luca Van Assche
FRA
Luca Van Assche
#100ATP
1659ELO
1578Clay ELO
$376kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWLLLL
Cecchinato M.
vs
Van Assche L.

Marco Cecchinato faces Luca Van Assche in the Parma quarter-final on clay. Luca Van Assche is the paper favourite — ranked #100, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 50-point clay Elo advantage — but Marco Cecchinato arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Luca Van Assche's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:22 UTC
Cecchinato M.33%
Van Assche L.67%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Van Assche L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cecchinato M.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Van Assche L.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.4Clay Elo 1528
Surface ELO
5.6+50 Clay Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1558
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1659
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
7.88 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.94 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Cecchinato M.Stable
Van Assche L.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

33 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
Cecchinato M.Van Assche L.
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Even
64%
64%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
2.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cecchinato M.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Van Assche L.

Van Assche L.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Cecchinato M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cecchinato M.Van Assche L.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
43
65
Break points saved·Even
89
91
Break points won·Dominant
20
61
Deciding sets·Dominant
38
75
Tiebreaks·Dominant
81
51

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cecchinato M.Van Assche L.
Freshness·Clear edge
57
73

Cecchinato M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 87 games (7d) · Van Assche L.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
36°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 27%

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-20UmagQ1clayLuca Van Assche6-3 7-6(3)
2023-05-29Roland GarrosR128clayLuca Van Assche6-1 6-1 6-3
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
De Jong J.[1]
Djere L.
3-65-7
Wiedenmann L.
Seggerman R.
2-61-6
Tseng C.
Martin Manzano J.
6-46-0
Roca Batalla O.
Passaro F.[7]
6-46-0
Ofner S.[4]
Brancaccio R.
6-36-4
Dalla Valle E.
Weis A.
6-26-3
Damas M.
Carballes Baena R.
2-63-6
Bar Biryukov P.
Travaglia S.[5]
6-753-6
Martinez P.[6]
Rincon D.
6-756-75
Agamenone F.
Napolitano S.
3-66-36-77
Simakin I.
Vasami J.
3-64-6
Gadamauri B.
Dzumhur D.[3]
6-46-4
Cecchinato M.[8]
Caniato C.
4-66-36-4
Guillen Meza A.
Bondioli F.
7-55-76-74
Galan D.
Piros Z.
6-23-66-3
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Van Assche L.[2]
3-66-33-6
Djere L.
Seggerman R.
4-66-17-64
Tseng C.
Roca Batalla O.
6-27-61
Ofner S.
Dalla Valle E.
6-27-5
Carballes Baena R.
Travaglia S.
6-16-756-3
Rincon D.
Napolitano S.
6-23-1
Vasami J.
Gadamauri B.
4-66-71
Cecchinato M.
Bondioli F.
6-26-3
Galan D.
Van Assche L.
1-63-6
Djere L.
Tseng C.
Ofner S.
Carballes Baena R.
Rincon D.
Gadamauri B.
Cecchinato M.
Van Assche L.
—
—
—