Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche — Parma Semi-final
Rincon D.
Daniel Rincon faces Luca Van Assche in the Parma semi-final on clay. Luca Van Assche holds the paper edge — ranked #100, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Van Assche L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Luca Van Assche has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 65 vs 40).
- Last match: Daniel Rincon dropped the opening set before beating Buvaysar Gadamauri 6–7 6–3 6–1.
- Last match: Luca Van Assche dropped the opening set before beating Marco Cecchinato 3–6 6–0 6–1.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRincon D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 54 games (7d) · Van Assche L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.