Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi — Nottingham Round of 16
Fearnley J.
Jacob Fearnley faces Benjamin Bonzi in the Nottingham round of 16 on grass. Benjamin Bonzi is the paper favourite — ranked #99, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage — but Jacob Fearnley has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Bonzi B. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Benjamin Bonzi brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 34), Jacob Fearnley the stronger return game (Return Rating 23).
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jacob Fearnley has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 86 vs 64).
- Last match: Jacob Fearnley dropped the opening set before beating Dane Sweeny 6–7 6–1 6–2.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFearnley J.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 137 games (7d) · Bonzi B.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on CENTRE COURT · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1C. O'Connell v Clarke J.
- 2Fearnley J. v Bonzi B.This match
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | R128 | hard | Jacob Fearnley | 7-6(6) 2-6 6-4 |