Madison Keys vs Xiyu Wang — Berlin Round of 32

Berlin · WTA · Round of 32

USA

Madison Keys

#26WTA

1948ELO

1772Grass ELO

$657kYTD

$24MCAREER

31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWWWWL

—

Sets

Tuesday, 16 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

CHN

Xiyu Wang

#100WTA

1732ELO

1563Grass ELO

25 yrs · 182 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LLWWLWWWWW

Keys M.

Wang X.

Madison Keys faces Xiyu Wang in the Berlin round of 32 on grass. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Keys M.85%

Wang X.15%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Madison Keys comes in with 13 days of rest and 24 games in 14d, vs Xiyu Wang's 6 and 47.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Madison Keys has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 92 vs 60).
Head-to-head: Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Eastbourne 2023.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Keys M.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Wang X.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

7.6+209 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.4Grass Elo 1563

6.9Overall Elo 1948

ELO gap

3.1Overall Elo 1732

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

5.96 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

3.94 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

6.0Reached the R32 here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Keys M.Stable

Wang X.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season

Keys M.Wang X.

1st serve in·Slight edge

66%

76%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

67%

61%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

47%

53%

Service points won·Even

60%

Return points won·Slight edge

45%

54%

Break points saved·Even

65%

63%

Aces / match·Dominant

4.0

0.4

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.8

1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Keys M.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Wang X.

Wang X.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Serve advantage — Wang X.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Keys M.Wang X.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Keys M.Wang X.

Freshness·Slight edge

Keys M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Wang X.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

15°COvercast

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2023-06-26	Eastbourne	R16	grass	Madison Keys	6-2 7-6(3)