Madison Keys vs Diana ShnaiderBrisbane Round of 16

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 16
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#15WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$6.1MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWWWW
Keys M.
6-7 7-6 7-6
Shnaider D.
Keys M.
6577772
Shnaider D.
7765641

Madison Keys defeated Diana Shnaider 6-7 7-6 7-6 in the Brisbane round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Madison Keys came in leading the head-to-head 2–1. Madison Keys extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-01Roland GarrosR16clayDiana Shnaider3-6 6-3 0-6
2025-06-09Queen's ClubQFgrassMadison Keys2-6 6-3 6-4
2024-03-18MiamiR64hardMadison Keys6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Shnaider D.

Shnaider D.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Keys M.Shnaider D.
36
Serve
41
29
Return
37

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
60%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
43%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.7
1.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
94
93
Break points saved·Even
96
94
Break points won·Slight edge
90
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
97
91
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
96
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 76 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
6.0+87 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 1833
6.0Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1891
10.0
H2H
0.0
4.4
Surface form
5.2
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.7
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
77
92

Keys M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Shnaider D.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw