Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Zarazua — Berlin Qualifying Semi-final
Timofeeva M.
Maria Timofeeva faces Renata Zarazua in the Berlin qualifying semi-final on grass. Renata Zarazua is the paper favourite — ranked #77, a roughly 120-point grass Elo advantage — but Maria Timofeeva rides a 5-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Zarazua R. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Maria Timofeeva 92 games in 14 days, Renata Zarazua 15.
- Win streak: Maria Timofeeva arrives on a 5-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match- Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadTimofeeva M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Zarazua R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
3rd on COURT 2 · not before Followed by · 2 matches still to finish ahead
- 1Lamens S. v Galfi D.
- 2Marcinko P. v Ito A.
- 3Timofeeva M. v Zarazua R.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.