Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz

Halle · ATP · Round of 32

RUS

Andrey Rublev

#13ATP

1905ELO

1802Grass ELO

$1.3MYTD

$33MCAREER

28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWWWLL

—

Sets

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

POL

Hubert Hurkacz

#96ATP

1808ELO

1721Grass ELO

$1.1MYTD

$20MCAREER

29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWLWWWWLW

Andrey Rublev faces Hubert Hurkacz in the Halle round of 32 on grass. Andrey Rublev is the paper favourite — ranked #13, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage — but Hubert Hurkacz has won 4 of their 6 previous meetings, though none on grass.

Key context

Head-to-head: Hubert Hurkacz leads the head-to-head 4–2, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Rotterdam 2025.
Stage: Andrey Rublev defends last year's round of 16.
Fatigue load: Hubert Hurkacz carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Rublev A.74%

Hurkacz H.26%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Rublev A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rublev A.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Hurkacz H.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.0+81 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.0Grass Elo 1721

6.2Overall Elo 1905

ELO gap

3.8Overall Elo 1808

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

6.06 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

5.26 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

6.0Won 66% in DEU (41)

Country comfort

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

Context

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

1.24

SlowFast

Weather forecast

12°COvercast

Wind 17 km/hHumidity 82%

Head to head

2–4

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-02-03	Rotterdam	QF	hard	Hubert Hurkacz	6-7(5) 6-3 6-4
2023-10-02	Shanghai Masters	F	hard	Hubert Hurkacz	6-3 3-6 7-6(8)
2022-03-07	Indian Wells Masters	R16	hard	Andrey Rublev	7-6(5) 6-4
2022-02-21	Dubai	SF	hard	Andrey Rublev	3-6 7-5 7-6(5)
2021-03-22	Miami Masters	SF	hard	Hubert Hurkacz	6-3 6-4
2020-09-14	Rome Masters	R32	clay	Hubert Hurkacz	7-6(6) 3-6 6-2

View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form

Rublev A.Hurkacz H.

62%1st serve in62%

74%1st serve points won+2%76%

51%2nd serve points won+1%52%

65%Service points won+2%67%

39%Return points won+4%35%

68%Break points saved+1%67%

6.1Aces / match+511.1

2.5Double faults / match+0.61.9

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz — Halle Round of 32