Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria HruncakovaFigueira Da Foz

Figueira Da Foz · CHALLENGER
#217WTA
1577ELO
1565Hard ELO
19 yrs
Last 10
LWWLLWWLWW
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
hard
CAMPO 1 · 3rd on
#223WTA
1504ELO
1480Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLWWW
Kinoshita H.
vs
Hruncakova V.

Hayu Kinoshita faces Viktoria Hruncakova in the Figueira Da Foz match on hard. Hayu Kinoshita is the paper favourite — ranked #217, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage — but Viktoria Hruncakova arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on hard to Hayu Kinoshita's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC
Kinoshita H.65%
Hruncakova V.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kinoshita H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+85 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1480
5.5Overall Elo 1577
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1504
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

37 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
73%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
41%
Break points saved·Even
62%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.7
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.1
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kinoshita H.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Hruncakova V.

Hruncakova V.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Kinoshita H.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
99

Hruncakova V.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on CAMPO 1 · not before Not before 1:00 PM · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Kulikova A. v Kobori M.
  2. 3Kinoshita H. v Hruncakova V.This match
  3. 4Aksu A. v Sanchez A.

Conditions

Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.