Norbert Gombos vs Mathys Erhard — Poznan Qualifying Final
Gombos N.
Norbert Gombos faces Mathys Erhard in the Poznan qualifying final on clay. Norbert Gombos is the paper favourite — ranked #365, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage — but Mathys Erhard arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Norbert Gombos's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Norbert Gombos comes in with 7 days of rest and 127 games in 14d, vs Mathys Erhard's 7 and 41.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Norbert Gombos has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 42 vs 17).
- Last match: Mathys Erhard dropped the opening set before beating Rudolf Molleker 5–7 7–6 6–0.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
When it starts
5th on COURT 2 · not before Not Before 17:45 · up next on court
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.