Luca Castelnuovo vs Milos Karol — Poznan Qualifying Final
Castelnuovo L.
Luca Castelnuovo faces Milos Karol in the Poznan qualifying final on clay. Luca Castelnuovo holds the paper edge — ranked #354.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 10:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Karol M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Luca Castelnuovo 67 games in 14 days, Milos Karol 192.
- Form trend: Milos Karol's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Luca Castelnuovo's has cooled.
- Last match: Luca Castelnuovo handed Faris Zakaryia a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–2 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadCastelnuovo L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d) · Karol M.: 8 days rest · 8 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.