Alexander Donski vs Max Hans RehbergPoznan Qualifying Final

Poznan · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#538ATP
1457ELO
1396Clay ELO
27 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
COURT 3 · 4th on
#526ATP
1507ELO
1428Clay ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLWLLWW
Donski A.
3-6 3-6
Rehberg M.
Donski A.
330
Rehberg M.
662

Max Hans Rehberg reeled off five straight games on the way to a 6-3 6-3 win over Alexander Donski in the Poznan qualifying final.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 7: Max Hans Rehberg broke serve.
  • Set 2, game 4: Max Hans Rehberg broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Alexander Donski converted 0 of 0 break points; Max Hans Rehberg converted 3 of 5 break points.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Donski A.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Rehberg M.

Rehberg M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Donski A.

Serve advantage — Rehberg M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
51%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
56%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
70%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.8
2.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.9
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC
Donski A.36%
Rehberg M.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rehberg M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Clay Elo 1396
Surface ELO
5.4+32 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1457
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1506
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.54 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.014h58m in 14 days
Minutes 14d
8.13h08m in 14 days
0.010 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
58
88

Donski A.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Rehberg M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
16°COvercast
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 66%