Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson — Modena Semi-final

Modena · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
Lucia Bronzetti
ITA
Lucia Bronzetti
#147WTA
1551ELO
1513Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWLWW
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Sets
Saturday, 13 June 2026 ·
clay
CZE
Laura Samson
#137WTA
1631ELO
1634Clay ELO
18 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLLWWLW

Lucia Bronzetti faces Laura Samson in the Modena semi-final on clay. Laura Samson is the paper favourite — ranked #137, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage — but Lucia Bronzetti arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Laura Samson's 6.

Key context

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTC
Bronzetti L.42%
Samson L.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bronzetti L.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Samson L.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.5Clay Elo 1513
Surface ELO
6.5+121 Clay Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1550
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1631
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.18 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.5Home country · 11/19 here
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 37%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Bronzetti L.Samson L.
61%1st serve in+6%55%
59%1st serve points won+9%68%
46%2nd serve points won46%
54%Service points won+4%58%
46%Return points won+2%44%
49%Break points saved+6%55%
2Aces / match+1.23.2
2Double faults / match+3.15.1

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Pieri J.
6-26-4
Basiletti N.
Lepchenko V.
2-63-6
Romero Gormaz L.
You X.
6-46-1
Pedone G.
Sherif M.
2-60-6
Salkova D.
Tubello A.
6-13-66-4
Trevisan M.
Ruggeri J.
6-06-3
Noha Akugue N.
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
6-46-4
Kawa K.
Pigato L.
6-46-4
Zidansek T.
Urgesi F.
7-56-0
Bosio V.
Brancaccio N.
4-65-7
Gao X.
Bronzetti L.
6-43-61-6
Lazaro Garcia A.
Grabher J.
4-62-6
Quevedo K.
Ortenzi J.
6-36-4
Vandromme J.
Fita Boluda A.
6-46-3
Wang X.
Samson L.
6-735-7
Bassols Ribera M.
Semenistaja D.
3-66-25-7
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Lepchenko V.
6-26-2
Romero Gormaz L.
Sherif M.
6-46-2
Salkova D.
Trevisan M.
6-17-65
Noha Akugue N.
Kawa K.
6-741-6
Zidansek T.
Brancaccio N.
2-62-6
Bronzetti L.
Grabher J.
7-667-64
Quevedo K.
Vandromme J.
6-33-66-4
Samson L.
Semenistaja D.
6-27-5
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-37-63
Salkova D.
Kawa K.
1-61-6
Brancaccio N.
Bronzetti L.
4-62-6
Quevedo K.
Samson L.
3-64-6
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Kawa K.
Bronzetti L.
Samson L.
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