Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti — Modena Final

Modena · CHALLENGER · Final
Katarzyna Kawa
POL
Katarzyna Kawa
#143WTA
1619ELO
1627Clay ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLWWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 14 June 2026 ·
clay
Lucia Bronzetti
ITA
Lucia Bronzetti
#147WTA
1551ELO
1513Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWLW

Katarzyna Kawa faces Lucia Bronzetti in the Modena final on clay. Katarzyna Kawa holds the paper edge — ranked #143, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:20 UTC
Kawa K.64%
Bronzetti L.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kawa K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kawa K.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Bronzetti L.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+114 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1513
5.1Overall Elo 1618
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1550
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
8.18 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
7.6Home country · 12/20 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 28%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-27ChennaiR32hardKatarzyna Kawa6-7 6-0 6-2

Statistics

Recent form
Kawa K.Bronzetti L.
63%1st serve in+2%61%
61%1st serve points won+2%59%
47%2nd serve points won+1%46%
56%Service points won+2%54%
50%Return points won+4%46%
55%Break points saved+6%49%
0.9Aces / match+1.12
2.6Double faults / match+0.62

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Jimenez Kasintseva V.[1]
Pieri J.
6-26-4
Basiletti N.[4]
Lepchenko V.
2-63-6
Romero Gormaz L.
You X.
6-46-1
Pedone G.
Sherif M.[6]
2-60-6
Salkova D.[3]
Tubello A.
6-13-66-4
Trevisan M.
Ruggeri J.
6-06-3
Noha Akugue N.
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.[1]
6-46-4
Kawa K.
Pigato L.[8]
6-46-4
Zidansek T.[7]
Urgesi F.
7-56-0
Bosio V.[3]
Brancaccio N.
4-65-7
Gao X.
Bronzetti L.
6-43-61-6
Lazaro Garcia A.
Grabher J.[4]
4-62-6
Quevedo K.[5]
Ortenzi J.[2]
6-36-4
Vandromme J.
Fita Boluda A.
6-46-3
Wang X.
Samson L.
6-735-7
Bassols Ribera M.
Semenistaja D.[2]
3-66-25-7
Jimenez Kasintseva V.[1]
Lepchenko V.
6-26-2
Romero Gormaz L.
Sherif M.[6]
6-46-2
Salkova D.[3]
Trevisan M.
6-17-65
Noha Akugue N.
Kawa K.
6-741-6
Zidansek T.[7]
Brancaccio N.
2-62-6
Bronzetti L.
Grabher J.[4]
7-667-64
Quevedo K.[5]
Vandromme J.
6-33-66-4
Samson L.
Semenistaja D.[2]
6-27-5
Jimenez Kasintseva V.[1]
Romero Gormaz L.
6-37-63
Salkova D.[3]
Kawa K.
1-61-6
Brancaccio N.
Bronzetti L.
4-62-6
Quevedo K.[5]
Samson L.
3-64-6
Jimenez Kasintseva V.[1]
Kawa K.
6-24-63-6
Bronzetti L.
Samson L.
7-636-1
Kawa K.
Bronzetti L.