Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa — Modena Quarter-final

Modena · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

CZE

Dominika Salkova

#114WTA

1617ELO

1536Clay ELO

21 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLWLWLW

—

Sets

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 11:00

clay

POL

Katarzyna Kawa

#143WTA

1619ELO

1627Clay ELO

33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLWWWWWW

Dominika Salkova faces Katarzyna Kawa in the Modena quarter-final on clay. Dominika Salkova is the paper favourite — ranked #114 — but Katarzyna Kawa arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Dominika Salkova's 6.

Key context

Fatigue load: Dominika Salkova carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Dominika Salkova 6 of 10, Katarzyna Kawa 8 of 10 on clay recently — Katarzyna Kawa the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Salkova D.48%

Kawa K.52%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Salkova D.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Kawa K.

7.1

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.9Clay Elo 1536

Surface ELO

6.1+91 Clay Elo edge

5.4Overall Elo 1617

ELO gap

4.6Overall Elo 1618

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.36 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

7.68 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

24°CMainly clear

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 46%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Salkova D.Kawa K.

70%1st serve in+7%63%

58%1st serve points won+3%61%

43%2nd serve points won+4%47%

53%Service points won+3%56%

47%Return points won+3%50%

54%Break points saved+1%55%

0.9Aces / match0.9

3Double faults / match+0.42.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.