Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa — Modena Semi-final

Modena · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
AND
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
#124WTA
1604ELO
1542Clay ELO
20 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLLLLLWL
—
Sets
Saturday, 13 June 2026 ·
clay
Katarzyna Kawa
POL
Katarzyna Kawa
#143WTA
1619ELO
1627Clay ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWWWW

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva faces Katarzyna Kawa in the Modena semi-final on clay. Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva is the paper favourite — ranked #124 — but Katarzyna Kawa arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva's 4.

Key context

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Jimenez Kasintseva V.49%
Kawa K.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Kawa K.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Clay Elo 1542
Surface ELO
6.1+85 Clay Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1604
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1618
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.94 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.98 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 41%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Jimenez Kasintseva V.Kawa K.
66%1st serve in+3%63%
57%1st serve points won+4%61%
46%2nd serve points won+1%47%
53%Service points won+3%56%
44%Return points won+6%50%
57%Break points saved+2%55%
1.6Aces / match+0.70.9
4.4Double faults / match+1.82.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Pieri J.
6-26-4
Basiletti N.
Lepchenko V.
2-63-6
Romero Gormaz L.
You X.
6-46-1
Pedone G.
Sherif M.
2-60-6
Salkova D.
Tubello A.
6-13-66-4
Trevisan M.
Ruggeri J.
6-06-3
Noha Akugue N.
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
6-46-4
Kawa K.
Pigato L.
6-46-4
Zidansek T.
Urgesi F.
7-56-0
Bosio V.
Brancaccio N.
4-65-7
Gao X.
Bronzetti L.
6-43-61-6
Lazaro Garcia A.
Grabher J.
4-62-6
Quevedo K.
Ortenzi J.
6-36-4
Vandromme J.
Fita Boluda A.
6-46-3
Wang X.
Samson L.
6-735-7
Bassols Ribera M.
Semenistaja D.
3-66-25-7
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Lepchenko V.
6-26-2
Romero Gormaz L.
Sherif M.
6-46-2
Salkova D.
Trevisan M.
6-17-65
Noha Akugue N.
Kawa K.
6-741-6
Zidansek T.
Brancaccio N.
2-62-6
Bronzetti L.
Grabher J.
7-667-64
Quevedo K.
Vandromme J.
6-33-66-4
Samson L.
Semenistaja D.
6-27-5
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-37-63
Salkova D.
Kawa K.
1-61-6
Brancaccio N.
Bronzetti L.
4-62-5
Quevedo K.
Samson L.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Kawa K.
—
—