Matteo Martineau vs Mae Malige — Lyon Qualifying Semi-final

Lyon · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final

FRA

Matteo Martineau

#326ATP

1418ELO

1356Clay ELO

27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLLLLLWLWL

2 — 1

Sets

Sunday, 7 June 2026 · 15:30

clay

Court 1 · 4th on

FRA

Mae Malige

#546ATP

1337ELO

1229Clay ELO

20 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLLLLLWLW

Matteo Martineau fought back from a set down to beat Mae Malige 2-6 6-2 6-4 in the Lyon qualifying semi-final.

Key context

Momentum: Mae Malige won five games in a row.
Set 3, game 3: Mae Malige broke serve.
Pressure points: Matteo Martineau converted 5 of 9 break points; Mae Malige converted 4 of 8 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC

Martineau M.68%

Malige M.32%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Martineau M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Martineau M.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Malige M.

4.3

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.6+127 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.4Clay Elo 1229

6.0Overall Elo 1418

ELO gap

4.0Overall Elo 1337

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

2.33 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

1.21 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 5

Win streak

0.0Lost last 6

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Surface transition

6.0Hard → Clay

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Martineau M.

2662

Malige M.

6241