Matteo Martineau vs Maxime Janvier — Lyon Qualifying Final

Lyon · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final

FRAQ

Matteo Martineau

#335ATP

1418ELO

1356Clay ELO

27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WWLLLLLWLW

2 — 1

Sets

Monday, 8 June 2026 · 11:45

clay

Court 1 · 2nd on

FRA

Maxime Janvier

#559ATP

1317ELO

1283Clay ELO

29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWWLWLWWL

Matteo Martineau fought back from a set down to beat Maxime Janvier 4-6 6-3 6-4 in the Lyon qualifying final.

Key context

Set 1, game 9: Maxime Janvier broke serve.
Momentum: Matteo Martineau won five games in a row.
Pressure points: Matteo Martineau converted 4 of 6 break points; Maxime Janvier converted 3 of 7 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:20 UTC

Martineau M.67%

Janvier M.33%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Martineau M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Martineau M.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Janvier M.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.9+73 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.1Clay Elo 1283

6.3Overall Elo 1418

ELO gap

3.7Overall Elo 1317

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

3.13 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.94 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

5.6Home country · 3/11 here

Country comfort

5.7Home country · 5/18 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Martineau M.

4662

Janvier M.

6341