Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino — Perugia Semi-final

Perugia · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#82ATP
1745ELO
1684Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 6 June 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
ITA
Andrea Pellegrino
#109ATP
1640ELO
1622Clay ELO
$207kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLWW

Daniel Merida Aguilar broke serve in the third set to take control and defeat Andrea Pellegrino 6-3 5-7 6-3 in the Perugia semi-final.

Key context

  • Set 2, game 5: A 17-point game with six deuces went Daniel Merida Aguilar's way.
  • Pressure points: Daniel Merida Aguilar converted 4 of 13 break points; Andrea Pellegrino converted 2 of 4 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC
Merida Aguilar D.69%
Pellegrino A.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Merida Aguilar D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Merida Aguilar D.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Pellegrino A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.8+62 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Clay Elo 1622
6.3Overall Elo 1745
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1640
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
7.07 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Merida Aguilar D.
6562
Pellegrino A.
3731

Conditions

Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 45%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Merida Aguilar D.Pellegrino A.
68%1st serve in+10%58%
67%1st serve points won+4%71%
48%2nd serve points won+5%53%
61%Service points won+3%64%
40%Return points won+1%39%
61%Break points saved+1%62%
3Aces / match+0.43.4
2.9Double faults / match+0.82.1

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Royer V.
Alvarez Varona N.
6-46-3
Cecchinato M.
Simakin I.
6-36-4
Echargui M.
Tseng C.
4-66-13-6
Skatov T.
Gaubas V.
4-66-46-2
Rocha H.
Dalla Valle E.
6-47-67
Bueno G.
Lajovic D.
4-61-6
Nardi L.
Roca Batalla O.
6-47-65
Bertola R.
Ratti L.
6-44-66-2
Llamas Ruiz P.
Ribecai M.
6-43-67-62
Cretu C.
Vasami J.
6-744-6
Broady L.
Jorda Sanchis D.
5-76-36-3
Cadenasso G.
Merida Aguilar D.
2-60-0
Pellegrino A.
Kasnikowski M.
4-67-656-1
Carballes Baena R.
Carboni L.
3-66-16-4
Basile P.
Travaglia S.
7-634-66-3
Forti F.
Sels J.
6-07-64
Royer V.
Cecchinato M.
3-60-3
Tseng C.
Skatov T.
7-626-776-74
Rocha H.
Lajovic D.
6-47-5
Nardi L.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Vasami J.
7-636-3
Broady L.
Merida Aguilar D.
4-62-6
Pellegrino A.
Carballes Baena R.
4-67-56-3
Basile P.
Forti F.
6-16-3
Cecchinato M.
Skatov T.
4-64-6
Rocha H.
Bertola R.
6-24-66-2
Llamas Ruiz P.
Merida Aguilar D.
1-62-6
Pellegrino A.
Basile P.
6-26-3
Skatov T.
Rocha H.
4-62-6
Merida Aguilar D.
Pellegrino A.
6-35-76-3
Rocha H.
Merida Aguilar D.
7-656-3