Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Perugia Final

Perugia · CHALLENGER · Final
POR
Henrique Rocha
#121ATP
1621ELO
1603Clay ELO
$119kYTD
$801kCAREER
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 7 June 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#82ATP
1745ELO
1684Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLLLWWW

Henrique Rocha broke serve in the second set to take control and defeat Daniel Merida Aguilar 7-6 6-3 in the Perugia final.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 7: A 13-point game with four deuces went Daniel Merida Aguilar's way.
  • Pressure points: Henrique Rocha converted 4 of 5 break points; Daniel Merida Aguilar converted 2 of 4 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC
Rocha H.34%
Merida Aguilar D.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Merida Aguilar D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rocha H.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Merida Aguilar D.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.0Clay Elo 1603
Surface ELO
6.0+80 Clay Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1621
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1745
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.25 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Rocha H.
7762
Merida Aguilar D.
6530

Conditions

Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Rocha H.Merida Aguilar D.
64%1st serve in+4%68%
69%1st serve points won+2%67%
50%2nd serve points won+2%48%
62%Service points won+1%61%
42%Return points won+2%40%
52%Break points saved+9%61%
2.1Aces / match+0.93
3.5Double faults / match+0.62.9

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Royer V.
Alvarez Varona N.
6-46-3
Cecchinato M.
Simakin I.
6-36-4
Echargui M.
Tseng C.
4-66-13-6
Skatov T.
Gaubas V.
4-66-46-2
Rocha H.
Dalla Valle E.
6-47-67
Bueno G.
Lajovic D.
4-61-6
Nardi L.
Roca Batalla O.
6-47-65
Bertola R.
Ratti L.
6-44-66-2
Llamas Ruiz P.
Ribecai M.
6-43-67-62
Cretu C.
Vasami J.
6-744-6
Broady L.
Jorda Sanchis D.
5-76-36-3
Cadenasso G.
Merida Aguilar D.
2-60-0
Pellegrino A.
Kasnikowski M.
4-67-656-1
Carballes Baena R.
Carboni L.
3-66-16-4
Basile P.
Travaglia S.
7-634-66-3
Forti F.
Sels J.
6-07-64
Royer V.
Cecchinato M.
3-60-3
Tseng C.
Skatov T.
7-626-776-74
Rocha H.
Lajovic D.
6-47-5
Nardi L.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Vasami J.
7-636-3
Broady L.
Merida Aguilar D.
4-62-6
Pellegrino A.
Carballes Baena R.
4-67-56-3
Basile P.
Forti F.
6-16-3
Cecchinato M.
Skatov T.
4-64-6
Rocha H.
Bertola R.
6-24-66-2
Llamas Ruiz P.
Merida Aguilar D.
1-62-6
Pellegrino A.
Basile P.
6-26-3
Skatov T.
Rocha H.
4-62-6
Merida Aguilar D.
Pellegrino A.
6-35-76-3
Rocha H.
Merida Aguilar D.
7-656-3