Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno BustaValencia Round of 16

Valencia · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#57ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 14 May 2026 ·
clay
#71ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW
Baez S.
7-5 5-7 5-7
Carreno Busta P.
Baez S.
7551
Carreno Busta P.
5772

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Sebastian Baez 5-7 7-5 7-5 in the Valencia round of 16 on clay. The result followed the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in leading the head-to-head 2–1. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-17Winston-SalemR32hardSebastian Baez7-5 6-2
2022-10-24BaselR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-1
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR64clayPablo Carreno Busta6-4 4-6 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baez S.Carreno Busta P.
1
Serve
44
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
78
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Dominant
86
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
80
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
83
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Clay Elo 1718
Surface ELO
5.2+49 Clay Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.0
Surface form
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
96
92

Baez S.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About