Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon NakashimaAcapulco Semi-final

Acapulco · ATP · Semi-final
#19ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Tiafoe F.
3-6 7-6 6-4
Nakashima B.
Tiafoe F.
37862
Nakashima B.
66641

Frances Tiafoe defeated Brandon Nakashima 3-6 7-6 6-4 in the Acapulco semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Frances Tiafoe came in ranked #19, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's round of 16. Frances Tiafoe extended the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

51
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-31HoustonSFclayFrances Tiafoe6-4 7-6(3)
2024-09-25TokyoR32hardBrandon Nakashima7-5 6-3
2022-07-25AtlantaQFhardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-2
2022-03-21Miami MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe3-6 7-6(5) 6-4
2022-03-07Indian Wells MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-4
2021-03-15AcapulcoR32hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(5)

Serve vs return

This season
Tiafoe F.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Tiafoe F.Nakashima B.
38
Serve
61
37
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
69%
Return points won·Even
35%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.5
9.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.3
0.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
83
56
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
57
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
92
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+74 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1788
6.0Overall Elo 1918
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1839
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.9
Surface form
5.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.7
Minutes 14d
6.4
0.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
86

Tiafoe F.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 47%