Brandon Nakashima vs Frances TiafoeTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 32
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 25 September 2024
hard
#19ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Nakashima B.
7-5 6-3
Tiafoe F.
Nakashima B.
762
Tiafoe F.
530

Brandon Nakashima defeated Frances Tiafoe 7-5 6-3 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Frances Tiafoe came in ranked #19, leading the head-to-head 6–0, defending last year's round of 32. Brandon Nakashima claimed a first win over Frances Tiafoe in seven meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

06
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-23AcapulcoSFhardFrances Tiafoe3-6 7-6(6) 6-4
2025-03-31HoustonSFclayFrances Tiafoe6-4 7-6(3)
2022-07-25AtlantaQFhardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-2
2022-03-21Miami MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe3-6 7-6(5) 6-4
2022-03-07Indian Wells MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-4
2021-03-15AcapulcoR32hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(5)

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Tiafoe F.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Tiafoe F.
61
Serve
38
23
Return
37

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
65%
Return points won·Even
35%
36%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
8.6
7.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.2
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (176 vs 130). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
56
83
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
13
57
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
92
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
89
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
5.9+74 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1918
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.6
Surface form
6.5
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.0
Minutes 14d
7.5
4.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
84
72

Nakashima B.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Tiafoe F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 31 km/hHumidity 64%