Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon NakashimaHouston Semi-final

Houston · ATP · Semi-final
#17ATP
1918ELO
1827Clay ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 31 March 2025
clay
#32ATP
1839ELO
1735Clay ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Tiafoe F.
6-4 7-6
Nakashima B.
Tiafoe F.
6772
Nakashima B.
4630

Frances Tiafoe defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-4 7-6 in the Houston semi-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Frances Tiafoe came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's final. Frances Tiafoe extended the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

51
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-23AcapulcoSFhardFrances Tiafoe3-6 7-6(6) 6-4
2024-09-25TokyoR32hardBrandon Nakashima7-5 6-3
2022-07-25AtlantaQFhardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-2
2022-03-21Miami MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe3-6 7-6(5) 6-4
2022-03-07Indian Wells MastersR64hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-4
2021-03-15AcapulcoR32hardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(5)

Serve vs return

This season
Tiafoe F.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Even
62%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.6
9.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (68 vs 82). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
83
56
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
57
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
92
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.3+93 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Clay Elo 1735
6.0Overall Elo 1918
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1839
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.8
Surface form
5.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.1
Minutes 14d
6.4
7.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
90

Tiafoe F.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Nakashima B.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast