Pablo Carreno Busta vs Botic Van De ZandschulpDubai Qualifying Round 1

Dubai · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 1
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
0 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#55ATP
1743ELO
1711Hard ELO
$690kYTD
$6.6MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLLLW
Carreno Busta P.
6-3 6-2
Van De Zandschulp B.
Carreno Busta P.
662
Van De Zandschulp B.
32

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-3 6-2 in the Dubai qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Botic Van De Zandschulp came in ranked #55, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Pablo Carreno Busta narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-23DubaiQ1hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-2
2024-10-02Shanghai MastersR128hardBotic Van De Zandschulp7-6(5) 6-2
2022-05-02Madrid MastersR64clayBotic Van De Zandschulp6-7(6) 7-6(1) 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Van De Zandschulp B.

Van De Zandschulp B.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Van De Zandschulp B.
21
Serve
41
44
Return
43

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
46%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
6.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.3
4.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
77
Break points saved·Even
97
98
Break points won·Slight edge
61
68
Deciding sets·Even
80
79
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
95
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.0+34 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Hard Elo 1711
4.9Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1743
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.8
Surface form
5.1
Fatigue & Travel
5.7
Minutes 14d
6.3
0.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
91

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Van De Zandschulp B.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast