Jasmine Paolini vs Katie BoulterMerida Quarter-final

Merida · WTA · Quarter-final
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#60WTA
1831ELO
1795Hard ELO
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWLW
Paolini J.
0-6 6-3 6-3
Boulter K.
Paolini J.
0662
Boulter K.
6331

Jasmine Paolini defeated Katie Boulter 0-6 6-3 6-3 in the Merida quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 3–1. Jasmine Paolini extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-22MadridR64clayJasmine Paolini6-1 6-2
2024-06-24EastbourneQFgrassJasmine Paolini6-1 7-6(0)
2024-01-29LinzR32hardKatie Boulter6-2 6-2
2022-03-07Indian WellsR128hardJasmine Paolini6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Boulter K.

Boulter K.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Boulter K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Boulter K.
31
Serve
21
55
Return
67

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
56%
59%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Even
58%
57%
Aces / match·Even
2.7
2.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
87
Break points saved·Even
87
86
Break points won·Slight edge
99
93
Deciding sets·Even
97
94
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 22 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
6.2+78 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1795
6.3Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1831
0.0
H2H
10.0
3.3
Surface form
7.7
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
98

Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Boulter K.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 49%