Alex De Minaur vs Felix Auger AliassimeRotterdam Final

Rotterdam · ATP · Final
#5ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 February 2026
hard
#4ATP
1958ELO
1932Hard ELO
$2.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWLW
De Minaur A.
6-3 6-2
Auger Aliassime F.
De Minaur A.
662
Auger Aliassime F.
320

Alex De Minaur defeated Felix Auger Aliassime 6-3 6-2 in the Rotterdam final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Felix Auger Aliassime came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 32. Alex De Minaur narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenQFhardFelix Auger Aliassime4-6 7-6(7) 7-5 7-6(4)
2024-05-06Rome MastersR32clayAlex De Minaur6-7(2) 6-4 6-4
2022-11-27Davis Cup Finals F: CAN vs AUSRRhardFelix Auger Aliassime6-3 6-4
2022-08-15Cincinnati MastersR32hardFelix Auger Aliassime6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Auger Aliassime F.

Auger Aliassime F.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

De Minaur A.Auger Aliassime F.
48
Serve
74
80
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
71%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
67%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.4
9.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
95
84
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Dominant
97
50
Deciding sets·Even
97
99
Tiebreaks·Even
99
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.0+3 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Hard Elo 1932
5.0Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1958
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.4
Surface form
6.8
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
5.8
3-set count
7.0
4.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
80
64

De Minaur A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Auger Aliassime F.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
3°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 97%