Brandon Nakashima vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · ATP · Round of 32
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#23ATP
1893ELO
1842Hard ELO
$926kYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Nakashima B.
7-6 6-4
Davidovich Fokina A.
Nakashima B.
7762
Davidovich Fokina A.
6440

Brandon Nakashima defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6 6-4 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina came in ranked #23, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Brandon Nakashima claimed a first win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-03-20Miami MastersR64hardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-4 7-6(5)
2023-01-09Adelaide 2R32hardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-2 7-6(3)

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Davidovich Fokina A.

Davidovich Fokina A.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakashima B.Davidovich Fokina A.
61
Serve
40
23
Return
53

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
69%
71%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
69%
66%
Return points won·Even
34%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.2
4.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
0.6
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
56
91
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
13
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
91
Tiebreaks·Even
89
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
5.8+55 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1893
0.0
H2H
10.0
3.4
Surface form
7.0
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
75

Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%