Matteo Berrettini vs Pablo Carreno BustaDavis Cup Finals F: ITA vs ESP Round Robin

Davis Cup Finals F: ITA vs ESP · ATP · Round Robin
#43ATP
1831ELO
1797Hard ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 23 November 2025
hard
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Berrettini M.
6-3 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Berrettini M.
662
Carreno Busta P.
340

Matteo Berrettini defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 6-4 in the Davis Cup Finals F: ITA vs ESP round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Berrettini came in ranked #43. Matteo Berrettini extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-08Canada MastersR64hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-2
2022-01-17Australian OpenR16hardMatteo Berrettini7-5 7-6(4) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Berrettini M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Berrettini M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Berrettini M.Carreno Busta P.
57
Serve
21
10
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.8
3.1
Double faults / match·Even
1.6
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (56 vs 92). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
81
78
Break points saved·Even
100
97
Break points won·Slight edge
53
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
80
Tiebreaks·Even
98
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.9+53 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1744
5.9Overall Elo 1831
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.5
Surface form
6.6
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
83
94

Berrettini M.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About