Matteo Berrettini vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Australian Open Round of 16

Australian Open · ATP · Round of 16
Matteo Berrettini
ITA7
Matteo Berrettini
#43ATP
1831ELO
1797Hard ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
3 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 January 2022
hard
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP19
Pablo Carreno Busta
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Berrettini M.
7-5 7-6 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Berrettini M.
77763
Carreno Busta P.
56440

Matteo Berrettini defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-5 7-6 6-4 in the Australian Open round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Berrettini came in ranked #43, defending last year's round of 16. Matteo Berrettini extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-23Davis Cup Finals F: ITA vs ESPRRhardMatteo Berrettini6-3 6-4
2022-08-08Canada MastersR64hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Berrettini M.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Berrettini M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Berrettini M.Carreno Busta P.
57
Serve
21
10
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Berrettini M.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
64%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.8
3.6
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (171 vs 183). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Berrettini M.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Even
81
78
Break points saved·Even
100
97
Break points won·Slight edge
53
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
80
Tiebreaks·Even
98
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Berrettini M.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+53 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1744
5.9Overall Elo 1831
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.6
Surface form
6.3
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.6
Minutes 14d
5.9
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
5.5
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Berrettini M.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Clear edge
80
92

Berrettini M.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 68%
Final
Nadal R.[6]
Medvedev D.[2]
2-66-756-46-47-5
Semi-finals
Medvedev D.[2]
Tsitsipas S.[4]
7-654-66-46-1
Nadal R.[6]
Berrettini M.[7]
6-36-23-66-3
Quarter-finals
Berrettini M.[7]
Monfils G.[17]
6-46-43-63-66-2
Nadal R.[6]
Shapovalov D.[14]
6-36-44-63-66-3
Tsitsipas S.[4]
Sinner J.[11]
6-36-46-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-743-67-627-56-4
R16
Nadal R.[6]
Mannarino A.
7-6146-26-2
Monfils G.[17]
Kecmanovic M.
7-57-646-3
Berrettini M.[7]
Carreno Busta P.[19]
7-57-646-4
Shapovalov D.[14]
Zverev A.[3]
6-37-656-3
Sinner J.[11]
De Minaur A.[32]
7-636-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[4]
Fritz T.[20]
4-66-44-66-36-4
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Cilic M.[27]
2-67-676-27-64
Medvedev D.[2]
Cressy M.
6-27-646-747-5
R32
Carreno Busta P.[19]
Korda S.
6-47-56-766-3
Kecmanovic M.
Sonego L.[25]
6-46-786-27-5
Monfils G.[17]
Garin C.[16]
7-646-16-3
Berrettini M.[7]
Alcaraz C.[31]
6-27-634-62-67-65
Zverev A.[3]
Albot R.
6-36-46-4
Shapovalov D.[14]
Opelka R.[23]
7-644-66-36-4
Mannarino A.
Karatsev A.[18]
7-646-747-56-4
Nadal R.[6]
Khachanov K.[28]
6-36-23-66-1
De Minaur A.[32]
Andujar P.
6-46-46-2
Sinner J.[11]
Daniel T.
6-41-66-36-1
Fritz T.[20]
Bautista Agut R.[15]
6-03-63-66-46-3
Tsitsipas S.[4]
Paire B.
6-37-56-726-4
Cilic M.[27]
Rublev A.[5]
7-57-633-66-3
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Evans D.[24]
6-46-16-1
Cressy M.
Oconnell C.
6-26-766-36-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-46-46-2
R64
Evans D.[24]
Rinderknech A.
W/O
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Davidovich Fokina A.
7-646-747-657-64
Van De Zandschulp B.
Gasquet R.
4-66-04-0
Bautista Agut R.[15]
Kohlschreiber P.
6-16-06-3
Nadal R.[6]
Hanfmann Y.
6-26-36-4
Daniel T.
Murray A.
6-46-46-4
Paire B.
Dimitrov G.[26]
6-46-46-747-62
Khachanov K.[28]
Bonzi B.
6-46-07-5
Sonego L.[25]
Otte O.
2-66-26-36-1
Andujar P.
Molcan A.
6-47-660-66-1
Zverev A.[3]
Millman J.
6-46-46-0
Kecmanovic M.
Paul T.
7-677-57-68
Monfils G.[17]
Bublik A.
6-16-06-4
Garin C.[16]
Martinez P.
6-717-642-66-26-2
Korda S.
Moutet C.
3-66-46-727-57-66
Carreno Busta P.[19]
Griekspoor T.
6-36-767-633-66-4
Alcaraz C.[31]
Lajovic D.
6-26-17-5
Berrettini M.[7]
Kozlov S.
6-14-66-46-1
Albot R.
Vukic A.
6-47-646-4
Opelka R.[23]
Koepfer D.
6-46-37-64
Shapovalov D.[14]
Kwon S.
7-666-736-767-56-2
Mannarino A.
Hurkacz H.[10]
6-46-26-3
Karatsev A.[18]
Mcdonald M.
3-66-26-26-3
De Minaur A.[32]
Majchrzak K.
6-46-46-2
Sinner J.[11]
Johnson S.
6-26-46-3
Fritz T.[20]
Tiafoe F.
6-46-37-65
Tsitsipas S.[4]
Baez S.
7-616-756-36-4
Rublev A.[5]
Berankis R.
6-46-26-0
Cilic M.[27]
Gombos N.
6-26-33-67-66
Oconnell C.
Schwartzman D.[13]
7-666-46-4
Cressy M.
Machac T.
6-13-66-17-65
Medvedev D.[2]
Kyrgios N.
7-616-44-66-2
R128
Millman J.
Lopez F.
6-16-34-67-5
Johnson S.
Thompson J.
7-656-764-66-36-3
Kecmanovic M.
Caruso S.
6-46-26-1
Vukic A.
Harris L.[30]
4-66-37-57-63
Gombos N.
Skatov T.
6-36-21-66-4
Gasquet R.
Humbert U.[29]
3-67-647-636-3
Opelka R.[23]
Anderson K.
6-36-47-63
Martinez P.
Delbonis F.
7-6153-66-46-2
Majchrzak K.
Seppi A.
6-16-17-5
Paul T.
Kukushkin M.
6-36-46-2
Otte O.
Tseng C.
6-46-36-2
Sonego L.[25]
Querrey S.
7-56-36-3
Monfils G.[17]
Coria F.
6-16-16-3
Bublik A.
Escobedo E.
3-67-656-36-3
Garin C.[16]
Bagnis F.
6-36-45-76-746-3
Korda S.
Norrie C.[12]
6-36-06-4
Moutet C.
Pouille L.
3-66-36-46-3
Griekspoor T.
Fognini F.
6-16-46-4
Carreno Busta P.[19]
Etcheverry T.
6-16-27-62
Alcaraz C.[31]
Tabilo A.
6-26-26-3
Lajovic D.
Fucsovics M.
6-34-66-16-766-1
Kozlov S.
Vesely J.
7-56-36-4
Berrettini M.[7]
Nakashima B.
4-66-27-656-3
Zverev A.[3]
Altmaier D.
7-636-17-61
Albot R.
Nishioka Y.
6-36-44-66-2
Koepfer D.
Taberner C.
6-13-66-46-1
Kwon S.
Rune H.
3-66-43-66-36-2
Shapovalov D.[14]
Djere L.
7-636-43-67-63
Hurkacz H.[10]
Gerasimov E.
6-27-636-756-3
Mannarino A.
Duckworth J.
6-42-63-66-26-1
Mcdonald M.
Milojevic N.
5-76-46-36-2
Karatsev A.[18]
Munar J.
3-67-616-736-46-4
Khachanov K.[28]
Kudla D.
3-66-36-27-62
Bonzi B.
Gojowczyk P.
6-36-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Kokkinakis T.
6-26-36-2
Nadal R.[6]
Giron M.
6-16-46-2
Molcan A.
Safiullin R.
6-37-695-77-66
Andujar P.
Dzumhur D.
6-17-56-1
De Minaur A.[32]
Musetti L.
3-66-36-06-3
Murray A.
Basilashvili N.[21]
6-13-66-46-756-4
Daniel T.
Barrios Vera T.
7-656-16-1
Sinner J.[11]
Sousa J.
6-47-56-1
Bautista Agut R.[15]
Travaglia S.
7-626-45-76-1
Kohlschreiber P.
Cecchinato M.
6-47-57-60
Tiafoe F.
Trungelliti M.
3-66-46-23-66-3
Fritz T.[20]
Marterer M.
7-686-36-2
Dimitrov G.[26]
Lehecka J.
6-44-66-37-5
Paire B.
Monteiro T.
6-43-67-52-67-5
Baez S.
Ramos A.
6-44-66-31-66-2
Tsitsipas S.[4]
Ymer M.
6-26-46-3
Rublev A.[5]
Mager G.
6-36-26-2
Berankis R.
Carballes Baena R.
6-13-62-66-36-4
Cilic M.[27]
Gomez E.
6-36-16-2
Evans D.[24]
Goffin D.
6-46-36-0
Rinderknech A.
Popyrin A.
7-54-66-23-66-3
Davidovich Fokina A.
Bolt A.
6-36-36-4
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Ruusuvuori E.
6-40-63-66-36-4
Schwartzman D.[13]
Krajinovic F.
6-36-47-5
Machac T.
Cerundolo J.
6-32-66-46-2
Van De Zandschulp B.
Struff J.
6-46-36-2
Kyrgios N.
Broady L.
6-46-46-3
Medvedev D.[2]
Laaksonen H.
6-16-47-63
Oconnell C.
Gaston H.
7-646-04-66-1
Cressy M.
Isner J.[22]
7-627-56-746-746-4