Pablo Carreno Busta vs Matteo BerrettiniCanada Masters Round of 64

Canada Masters · ATP · Round of 64
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 8 August 2022
hard
#43ATP
1831ELO
1797Hard ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Carreno Busta P.
6-3 6-2
Berrettini M.
Carreno Busta P.
662
Berrettini M.
320

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-2 in the Canada Masters round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Berrettini came in ranked #43, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Pablo Carreno Busta claimed a first win over Matteo Berrettini in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-23Davis Cup Finals F: ITA vs ESPRRhardMatteo Berrettini6-3 6-4
2022-01-17Australian OpenR16hardMatteo Berrettini7-5 7-6(4) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Berrettini M.

Berrettini M.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Berrettini M.
21
Serve
57
44
Return
10

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.6
10.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (183 vs 171). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
81
Break points saved·Even
97
100
Break points won·Slight edge
61
53
Deciding sets·Slight edge
80
91
Tiebreaks·Even
95
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1744
Surface ELO
5.9+53 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1831
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.6
Surface form
7.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
80

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Berrettini M.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CDrizzle
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 72%