Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jan Lennard StruffDavis Cup Finals SF: ESP vs GER Round Robin

Davis Cup Finals SF: ESP vs GER · ATP · Round Robin
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 22 November 2025
hard
#41ATP
1694ELO
1634Hard ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
Carreno Busta P.
6-4 7-6
Struff J.
Carreno Busta P.
6782
Struff J.
4660

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Jan Lennard Struff 6-4 7-6 in the Davis Cup Finals SF: ESP vs GER round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in leading the head-to-head 4–1. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

41
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-11-02Paris MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(3) 6-2
2019-07-22HamburgR16clayPablo Carreno Busta6-1 7-6(4)
2019-01-07AucklandQFhardJan Lennard Struff7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(7)
2016-08-22Winston-SalemR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 7-5
2014-04-13Monte Carlo MastersQ1clayPablo Carreno Busta5-7 6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Struff J.

Struff J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Struff J.
21
Serve
36
44
Return
41

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
36%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.1
8.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (92 vs 71). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
61
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Dominant
61
21
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
68
Tiebreaks·Even
95
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+110 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1634
5.8Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1694
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.5
Surface form
3.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
5.7
3-set count
4.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
71

Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Struff J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About