Jan Lennard Struff vs Pablo Carreno BustaAuckland Quarter-final

Auckland · ATP · Quarter-final
#41ATP
1694ELO
1634Hard ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 January 2019
hard
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Struff J.
7-6 6-7 7-6
Carreno Busta P.
Struff J.
7766792
Carreno Busta P.
6578671

Jan Lennard Struff defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-6 6-7 7-6 in the Auckland quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in leading the head-to-head 5–0. Jan Lennard Struff claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in six meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

05
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-22Davis Cup Finals SF: ESP vs GERRRhardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 7-6(6)
2020-11-02Paris MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(3) 6-2
2019-07-22HamburgR16clayPablo Carreno Busta6-1 7-6(4)
2016-08-22Winston-SalemR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 7-5
2014-04-13Monte Carlo MastersQ1clayPablo Carreno Busta5-7 6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Struff J.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Struff J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Struff J.Carreno Busta P.
36
Serve
21
40
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.7
3.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 197). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
61
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
21
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
68
80
Tiebreaks·Even
94
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
64
92

Struff J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 64%