Alejandro Tabilo vs Brandon NakashimaChengdu Semi-final

Chengdu · ATP · Semi-final
#33ATP
1819ELO
1750Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 17 September 2025
hard
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Tabilo A.
6-4 7-6
Nakashima B.
Tabilo A.
6772
Nakashima B.
4600

Alejandro Tabilo defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-4 7-6 in the Chengdu semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #31, but Alejandro Tabilo had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Alejandro Tabilo extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-11Davis Cup Finals RR: USA vs CHIRRhardBrandon Nakashima7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(3)
2024-03-18Miami MastersR128hardAlejandro Tabilo6-4 3-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Tabilo A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Tabilo A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Tabilo A.Nakashima B.
51
Serve
61
10
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
68%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
9.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (86 vs 82). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
74
56
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Dominant
59
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
64
Tiebreaks·Dominant
56
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 41 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
4.9Hard Elo 1750
Surface ELO
5.1+38 Hard Elo edge
5.5Overall Elo 1819
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1839
4.6
H2H
5.4
6.6
Surface form
5.9
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.5
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
97
86

Tabilo A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast