Holger Rune vs Pablo Carreno BustaDavis Cup QLS R2: DEN vs ESP Round Robin

Davis Cup QLS R2: DEN vs ESP · ATP · Round Robin
#81ATP
1757ELO
1729Clay ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 13 September 2025
clay
#65ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Rune H.
7-5 6-3
Carreno Busta P.
Rune H.
762
Carreno Busta P.
530

Holger Rune defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-5 6-3 in the Davis Cup QLS R2: DEN vs ESP round robin on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 3–1, but Holger Rune had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Holger Rune narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Holger Rune closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-05Canada MastersR32hardHolger Rune6-1 6-3
2022-08-08Canada MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-0 6-3
2022-06-13HalleR32grassPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-6(5)
2021-09-20MetzQFhardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 3-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Rune H.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.2
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (52 vs 92). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
91
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Clear edge
84
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
80
Tiebreaks·Even
99
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 37 days (−0.7)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3Clay Elo 1729
Surface ELO
4.7+38 Clay Elo edge
5.3Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.9
Surface form
5.6
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
92

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About