Holger Rune vs Pablo Carreno BustaCanada Masters Round of 32

Canada Masters · ATP · Round of 32
#81ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 August 2024
hard
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Rune H.
6-1 6-3
Carreno Busta P.
Rune H.
662
Carreno Busta P.
130

Holger Rune defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-1 6-3 in the Canada Masters round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 3–1. Holger Rune narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-13Davis Cup QLS R2: DEN vs ESPRRclayHolger Rune7-5 6-3
2022-08-08Canada MastersR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-0 6-3
2022-06-13HalleR32grassPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-6(5)
2021-09-20MetzQFhardPablo Carreno Busta6-4 3-6 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Rune H.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rune H.Carreno Busta P.
47
Serve
21
58
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.0
3.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (120 vs 115). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
91
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Clear edge
84
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
80
Tiebreaks·Even
99
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
5.3Hard Elo 1725
Surface ELO
4.7+20 Hard Elo edge
5.3Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1801
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.6
Surface form
3.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
92

Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 72%